بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

MTB > Retrieve 'D:\MTBWIN\DATA\EMPLOY.MTW'.

Retrieving worksheet from file: D:\MTBWIN\DATA\EMPLOY.MTW

Worksheet was saved on 6/ 5/1996

ننظر ماذا تحوي الورقة

MTB > info

Column Count Name

C1 60 Trade

C2 60 Food

C3 60 Metals

MTB > print c1

Trade

322 317 319 323 327 328 325 326 330 334 337 341 322 318 320 326 332 334 335 336 335 338 342 348 330 326 329 337 345 350 351 354 355 357 362 368 348 345 349 355 362 367 366 370 371 375 380 385 361 354 357 367 376 381 381 383 384 387 392 396

MTB >

ثالثأ: نطبق خط إنجراف

MTB > %trend c1;

SUBC> forecast 6.

Executing from file: D:\MTBWIN\MACROS\trend.MAC

Macro is running ... please wait

Data Trade

Length 60.0000

NMissing 0

Fitted Trend Equation

Yt = 313.989 + 1.16485*t

Accuracy Measures

MAPE: 1.89988

MAD: 6.61770

MSD: 67.4325

Row Period Forecast

1 61 385.045

2 62 386.209

3 63 387.374

4 64 388.539

5 65 389.704

6 66 390.869

الآن نطبق النموذج التربيعي

MTB > %trend 'Trade';

SUBC> quadratic;

SUBC> forecast 6.

Executing from file: D:\MTBWIN\MACROS\trend.MAC

Macro is running ... please wait

Data Trade

Length 60.0000

NMissing 0

Fitted Trend Equation

Yt = 320.762 + 0.509373*t + 1.07E-02*t**2

Accuracy Measures

MAPE: 1.70760

MAD: 5.95655

MSD: 59.1305

Row Period Forecast

1 61 391.818

2 62 393.649

3 63 395.502

4 64 397.376

5 65 399.271

6 66 401.188

إذا النموذج التربيعي أفضل